Modeling Consumer Willingness to Consider Electric Motorcycles in Indonesia: A System Dynamics Approach
Main Article Content
Keywords
Technology Transition, Electric Motorcycle, Willingness to Consider, System Dynamics, Subsidy & Incentive Policy
Abstract
Sustainable transport plays a key role in the fight against climate change, particularly in developing countries where reliance on conventional vehicles is high. Motorcycles account for the majority of the fleet of motor vehicles in Indonesia and contribute significantly to emissions. In order to achieve its Paris target of a 29 percent reduction of carbon emissions, the government is encouraging electric cars with various incentives. This study develops a willingness to consider (WTC) model for electric motorcycles in Indonesia based on the powertrain technology transition market agent model (PTTMAM) and utilizes Vensim software to simulate outcomes. The WTC model is built on the assumption that consumers' willingness to consider electric motorcycles is influenced by factors such as costs, marketing, and exposures. The system dynamics model consists of four modules: the conventional motorcycle, the electric motorcycle, the marketing module, and the willingness to consider module. The simulation results show an increasing trend in consumers’ willingness to consider electric motorcycles from 2017-2035, with the WTC value reaching 0.3209 in 2035. While this indicates a positive shift toward greater consumer interest in electric motorcycles, the growth remains modest and slow, reflecting the challenges of widespread adoption. Additionally, this study evaluates three government incentive and subsidy policy scenarios. The scenario results indicate that government subsidies and incentives can increase the consumers’ willingness to consider electric motorcycles in Indonesia, thereby increasing their market share. Among the scenarios, the purchase price subsidy is the most effective, as it directly reduces the financial barrier, encouraging more consumers to make the switch to electric motorcycles.
References
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[30]J. M. Garcia, System Dynamics Modelling with Vensim, 2019.
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[32]A. Korzhenevych et al., "Update of the Handbook on External Costs of Transport Final Report for the European Commission: DG MOVE," London, Jan. 2014. Accessed: Aug. 11, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://transport.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2016-09/2014-handbook-external-costs-transport.pdf.
[33]R. Danielis, M. Scorrano, M. Giansoldati, and S. Alessandrini, "The Economic Case for Electric Vehicles in Public Sector Fleets: An Italian Case Study," World Electric Vehicle Journal, vol. 11, no. 1, p. 22, Mar. 2020, doi: 10.3390/wevj11010022.
[34]S. M. Afraah, Y. Yuniaristanto, W. Sutopo, and M. Hisjam, "Comparing Total Cost of Ownership of Electric and Conventional Motorcycles in Indonesia," Jurnal Teknik Industri, vol. 22, no. 2, pp. 196–210, Aug. 2021, doi: 10.22219/JTIUMM.Vol22.No2.196-210.
[35]D. S. Sulistyono, Y. Yuniaristanto, W. Sutopo, and M. Hisjam, "Proposing Electric Motorcycle Adoption-Diffusion Model in Indonesia: A System Dynamics Approach," Jurnal Optimasi Sistem Industri, vol. 20, no. 2, pp. 83–92, Nov. 2021, doi: 10.25077/josi.v20.n2.p83-92.2021.
[36]Yuniaristanto, W. Sutopo, M. Hisjam, and H. Wicaksono, "Estimating The Market Share of Electric Motorcycles: A System Dynamics Approach with The Policy Mix and Sustainable Life cycle costs," Energy Policy, vol. 195, p. 114345, Dec. 2024, doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114345.
[37]D. Kong, Q. Xia, Y. Xue, and X. Zhao, "Effects of multi policies on electric vehicle diffusion under subsidy policy abolishment in China: A multi-actor perspective," Appl. Energy, vol. 266, p. 114887, May 2020, doi: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.114887.
[38]L. K. Mitropoulos, P. D. Prevedouros, and P. Kopelias, "Total cost of ownership and externalities of conventional, hybrid and electric vehicle," Transportation Research Procedia, vol. 24, pp. 267–274, 2017, doi: 10.1016/j.trpro.2017.05.117.
[39]L. Galaï-Dol, A. De Bernardinis, A. Nassiopoulos, A. Peny, and F. Bourquin, "On the Use of Train Braking Energy Regarding the Electrical Consumption Optimization in Railway Station," Transportation Research Procedia, vol. 14, pp. 655–664, 2016, doi: 10.1016/j.trpro.2016.05.321.
[40]Central Bureau of Statistics, "Upah Rata - Rata Per Jam Pekerja Menurut Provinsi (Rupiah/Jam), 2015-2017," [Online]. Available: https://www.bps.go.id/id/statistics-table/2/MTE3MiMy/upah-rata---rata-per-jam-pekerja-menurut-provinsi.html.
[41]D. Krewski et al., "Extended Follow-Up and Spatial Analysis of the American Cancer Society Study Linking Particulate Air Pollution and Mortality," 2009. [Online]. Available: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/26690365.
[42]A. Hassani and V. Hosseini, "An Assessment of Gasoline Motorcycle Emissions Performance and Understanding Their Contribution to Tehran Air Pollution," Transp. Res. D Transp. Environ., vol. 47, pp. 1–12, Aug. 2016, doi: 10.1016/j.trd.2016.05.003.
[43]Ministry of Home Affairs, "Peraturan Menteri Dalam Negeri Nomor 1 Tahun 2021 tentang Penghitungan Dasar Pengenaan Pajak Kendaraan Bermotor dan Bea Balik Nama Kendaraan Bermotor Tahun 2021," [Online]. Available: https://peraturan.bpk.go.id/Details/163288/permendagri-no-1-tahun-2021.
[44]Ministry of Industry, "Regulation of the Minister of Industry Number 28 of 2023 concerning Amendments to Regulation of the Minister of Industry Number 6 of 2022 concerning Specifications, Development Roadmaps, and Provisions for Calculating the Value of Domestic Component Levels for Battery-Based Electric Motor Vehicles (Battery Electric Vehicles)," Accessed: Aug. 05, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://infoperaturan.id/peraturan-menteri-perindustrian-nomor-28-tahun-2023/.
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Published
Jun 30, 2025
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A. R. Adnanta, R. Z. Raung, W. Sutopo, and I. Susila, “Modeling Consumer Willingness to Consider Electric Motorcycles in Indonesia: A System Dynamics Approach”, J. Optimasi Sist. Ind., vol. 24, no. 1, pp. 37–62, Jun. 2025.
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