Evaluation of Driving Comparative Life Cycle Cost Assessment of Conventional and Electric Motorcycles in Indonesia: Monte Carlo Analysis

Main Article Content

Lsa Aldira Hafidza
Wahyudi Sutopo
Muhammad Hisjam


Electric motorcycle, life cycle cost, monte carlo simulation


The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is one of the solutions to reduce emission problems. Vehicle cost analysis is one of the keys to seizing the Indonesian market. As a consumer, it is not only the purchase price that needs to be considered, but the life cycle costs throughout ownership also need to be considered in the purchase. This study discusses the life cycle cost (LCC) of EVs in Indonesia, especially electric motorcycles (EMs), which will be compared with conventional motorcycles (CMs). In particular, this study aims to encourage the government's target for ownership of 2.1 million EMs in Indonesia by 2025. The novelty of this research is to develop a more comprehensive LCC model by considering the costs in terms of tangible and intangible to compare the two types of motorcycles using Monte Carlo simulation. This simulation is used to coordinate the behavioral uncertainty of motorcycle users. As a result, the value of an EM is more economical than CM for various users. The average value percentage of EMs is lower than CMs by 45% (IDR 30,6 million). In addition, several scenarios are also analyzed to maximize consumer welfare in Indonesia.


Download data is not yet available.


[1] IEA, "World Energy outlook 2019," October 2021. [Online]. Available: https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2021.
[2] ExxonMobil, "SOLUTIONS 2021 Annual Report," 2021. [Online]. Available: https://coIDRorate.exxonmobil.com/Investors/2021-Annual-Report.
[3] R. BP Statistical, "Statistical Review of World Energy," in bp Statistical Review of World Energy, 71 ed., London, 2022, pp. 12-27.
[4] B. P. Statistik, " Jumlah Kendaraan Bermotor Menurut Provinsi dan Jenis Kendaraan (unit)," 2021. [Online]. Available: bps.go.id.
[5] AISI, "Domestic Distribution and Export," ASSOCIATION OF INDONESIA MOTORCYCLE INDUSTRY, 2020. [Online]. Available: https://www.aisi.or.id/statistic/.
[6] X. Zhu, D. Fan, Z. Xiang, L. Quan, W. Hua, and M. Cheng, "Systematic multilevel optimization design and dynamic control of less-rare-earth hybrid permanent level optimization design and dynamic control of less-rare-earth hybrid permanent," Applied Energy, p. 253, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.113549
[7] W. Sutopo, R.W. Astuti, A. Purwanto, and M. Nizam, "Commercialization Commercialization vehicle. Proceedings of the 2013 Joint International Conference on Rural Information and Communication Technology and Electric- Vehicle Technology," rICT and ICEV-T, 2013.
[8] A. Pribadi, "187 SPKLU Siap Layani Kendaraan Listrik, Ini Sebarannya," 14 Oktober 2021. [Online]. Available: https://www.esdm.go.id/id/media-center/arsip-berita/187-spklu-siap-layani-kendaraan-listrik-ini-sebarannya.
[9] BPPT, Penguatan Ekonomi Berkelanjutan Melalui Penerapan Kendaraan Berbasis Listrik, Tangerang Selatan: Pusat Pengkajian Industri Proses dan Energi (PPIPE), 2020.
[10] Ilham, "Pengguna Makin Ramai, Ini Daftar Penyedia Layanan Ganti Baterai Motor Listrik di Indonesia," Autofun.co.id, 2 December 2021. [Online]. Available: https://www.autofun.co.id/berita-motor/pengguna-makin-ramai-ini-daftar-penyedia-layanan-ganti-baterai-motor-listrik-di-indonesia-37415.
[11] D. Perhubungan, "Kendaraan Listrik Masa Depan Transportasi Indonesia," 2021. [Online]. Available: https://dephub.go.id/post.
[12] V. T. P. Sidabutar, "Kajian Pengembangan Kendaraan Listrik Di Indonesia : Prospek dan Hambatannya," Jurnal Paradigma Ekonomika, vol. 15, no. 1, 2020. https://doi.org/10.22437/paradigma.v15i1.9217
[13] G. R. Widiaseno, "Honda Sebut Ada 5 Tantangan Industri Motor Listrik di Indonesia," 2 November 2018. [Online]. Available: https://www.tribunnews.com/otomotif/2018/11/02/honda-sebut-ada-5-tantangan-industri-motor-listrik-di-indonesia.
[14] T. Purwanti, "Biar Paham... 5 Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Harga BBM Naik Turun," 22 Juni 2022. [Online]. Available: https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/market/20220609091733-17-345540/biar-paham-5-faktor-yang-mempengaruhi-harga-bbm-naik-turun.
[15] P. Agung, "Menteri ESDM: Cadangan Minyak Indonesia Tersedia untuk 9,5 Tahun dan Cadangan Gas 19,9 Tahun," 19 Januari 2021. [Online]. Available: https://www.esdm.go.id/id/media-center/arsip-berita/menteri-esdm-cadangan-minyak-indonesia-tersedia-untuk-95-tahun-dan-cadangan-gas-199-tahun.
[16] M. D. Utami, Yuniaristanto., and W. Sutopo,, "Adoption Intention Model of Electric Vehicle in Indonesia," Jurnal Optimasi Sistem Industri, vol. 19, no. 1, pp. 70-81, 2020. https://doi.org/10.25077/josi.v19.n1.p70-81.2020
[17] J. Banks, B. L. J. S. Carson II, D. M. Nelson, and Nicol, "Discrete-Event System Simulation," 4 ed., Prentice-Hall, 2004.
[18] A. Law, "Simulation Modeling and Analysis," 4 ed., McGraw-Hill, 2007.
[19] Mukherjee U., Haghi E., Prabhakaran P., Graf F., Fowler M., "Transitioning electricity systems: the environmental," Int J Hydrogen Energy, pp. 12891-12906, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2019.03.173
[20] Q. Diao, W. Sun, X. Yuan, L. Li, and Z. Zheng, "Life-cycle private-cost-based competitiveness analysis of electric vehicles in China considering the intangible cost of traffic policies," Applied Energy, vol. 178, pp. 567-578, September 15, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.05.116
[21] X .Liu, N. Wang, D. Dong, and T. Fang, "Modeling total lifecycle ownership cost of battery electric vehicle based on urban traffic data in China," Advances in Mechanical Engineering, vol. 11, no. 5, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1177/1687814019851997
[22] P. &. S. M. Letmathe, "A consumer-oriented total cost of ownership model for different vehicle types in Germany," Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, vol. 57, pp. 314-335, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2017.09.007
[23] J. Li, M. Liang, W. Cheng, & S. Wang, "Life cycle cost of conventional, battery electric, and fuel cell electric vehicles considering traffic and environmental policies in China," International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, vol. 46, no. 14, pp. 9553-9566, February 24, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2020.12.100
[24] C. D. Lewis, Industrial and business forecasting methods: a practical guide to exponential smoothing and curve fitting, London: Butterworth Scientific, 1982.
[25] R. Riyanto, S. A Riyadi, C. Nuryakin, and N. W. G. Massie, "Estimating the Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) of Electrified Vehicle in Indonesia," International Conference on Electric Vehicular Technology (ICEVT), 18-21 November 2019. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICEVT48285.2019.8994030
[26] P. Kerdlap, and S. H. Gheewala, "Electric motorcycles in Thailand: A life cycle perspective," Journal of Industrial Ecology, vol. 20, no. 6, pp. 1399-1411, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.12406
[27] R. Danielis, M. Giansoldati, and L. Rotaris, "A probabilistic total cost of ownership model to evaluate the current and future prospects of electric cars uptake in Italy," Energy Policy, vol. 119, pp. 268-281, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2018.04.024
[28] D. T. Kosasih, "PLN Tawarkan Diskon 30 Persen untuk Pemilik Kendaraan Listrik," 13 September 2019. [Online]. Available: https://www.liputan6.com/otomotif/read/4061824/pln-tawarkan-diskon-30-persen-untuk-pemilik-kendaraan-listrik.
[29] C. Gong, "The Impact of Oil Prices on the Sales of New Energy The Impact of Oil Prices on the Sales of New Energy Models," International Conference on Social Sciences and Economic Development (ICSSED 2022), pp. 273-280, 2022. https://doi.org/10.2991/aebmr.k.220405.046
[30] James B. Bushnell, David S. Rapson, and Erich Muehlegger, "Energy Prices And Electric Vehicle Adoption," Nber Working Paper Series, pp. 1-45, Maret 2022. https://doi.org/10.3386/w29842
[31] M. H. Lazuardi, "Dua cara pemerintah bisa kelola limbah baterai kendaraan listrik," 5 Agustus 2021. [Online]. Available: https://theconversation.com/dua-cara-pemerintah-bisa-kelola-limbah-baterai-kendaraan-listrik-155715.
[32] Y. Tang, Q. Zhang, Y. Li, H . Li, X. Pan, and B. Mclellan, Applied Energy, vol. 251, pp. 113-313, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.113313
[33] Z. Y. She, Q. Sun, J. J. Ma, and B. C. Xie, "What are the barriers to widespread adoption of battery electric vehicles? A survey of public perception in Tianjin, China," Transport Policy, vol. 56, pp. 29-40, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2017.03.001
[34] G. Samosir, Y. Devara, B. Florentina, and R. Siregar, "Electric vehicles in Indonesia: the road towards sustainable transportation," Solidiance: Market Report, 2018.
[35] E. Apostolaki-Iosifidou, P. Codani, and W. Kempton, "Measurement of power loss during electric vehicle charging and discharging," Energy, vol. 127, pp. 730-742, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2017.03.015
[36] J. Sindha, ". Impact of battery swapping stations on EV adoption and its contribution to peak load management.," In 2020 17th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), pp. 1-4, September 2020. https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM49802.2020.9221910